Wednesday, March 4, 2015

Stratfor analysis of Russia's future - The King of Wishful Thinking

NOTE:  I have updated my Greencrow Creative Resources Page with some new photos and a wood carving. Enjoy!

The King of Wishful Thinking

Russia Today has a report on Stratfor's predictions for the next decade...including its predictions regarding its new "enemy du jour", Russia.  Read the report.  My comments to follow:


"American think-tank Stratfor has issued a new 'Decade Forecast,' which says the EU will decay, China will end up in "a communist dictatorship," and Russia will disintegrate...though it hasn't done so yet, despite such predictions taking place in the past.

“It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its current form,” the forecast’s chapter dedicated to Russia begins. The research maintains that Moscow’s “failure to transform energy revenues into self-sustaining economy” will eventually lead to a “repeat of the Soviet Union's experience in the 1980s and Russia's in the 1990s,” with the process accompanied by a demographic decline that is set to “really hit” Russia.

However, the forecaster's founder and CEO, George Friedman, recently said that Russia has the ability to emerge from US-led sanctions and the recent drop in the ruble due to falling oil prices. "Russians' strength is that they can endure things that would break other nations," Friedman said, suggesting that the country "has military and political power that could begin to impinge on Europe."

According to the forecast, Russia’s territorial losses will not be limited to the European part of the country. Its control over the North Caucasus is also predicted to “evaporate,” while maritime regions in Russia’s Far East will “move independently” to the countries they are “closely linked to” – namely China, Japan, and the US. Additionally, Karelia will “seek to rejoin” Finland. The US think-tank, sometimes referred to as a “shadow CIA” due to its employment of former CIA analysts, also warns that this time Russia's alleged tendency of solving problems with "secret police" won't work, and the Federal Security Service will be unable to rescue the country.

READ MORE: Stratfor founder: ‘US fears a resurgent Russia’

The collapse of Russia “will be a major test for the United States,” the research warns, concluding that “Washington is the only power able to address the issue.” However, the research leaves room for possible incidents and some nuclear missiles being “fired in the process.”

Greencrow's comments:

Funny how life imitates art....or how art imitates life...or how art WANTS to imitate life...Oh nevermind. 

The United States, ever the always predicting the dissolution of other countries that threaten its "exceptional" image of itself.  (It's a legend in its own mind).  The recent Stratfor "research" is either a complete Walter Mitty rendition of the future or it's a cynical thinly veiled CIA threat to the countries concerned.  Take your pick.

Here's the Russian Response.

"I am the Russian Occupier" - the Video

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