Friday, June 8, 2018

Seoul in talks with Pyongyang, Washington over ‘early’ agreement on ending Korean War

North Korean Leader Kim and South Korean
Leader Moon hold hands during recent meeting

US President Donald Trump didn't know what he was getting into when he started to stir the Korean hornet's nest after gaining the White House.  Just like he did on any number of other issues...he reduced the complexities of the Korean peninsula to a Tweet.  "Rocket Man".  It sounded so good and looked so good on his cell phone late that night just before he quickly pressed "send" while sitting on the edge of his bed.

Now, it looks like all those tweets and all the mouthing off have rendered the United States of America...or USrael as I call it...irrelevant.  "Irrelevant" is the worst position a hegemonic world power state can be in on this planet.  In spite of all the military bases and tens of thousands of soldiers stationed in South Korea...which has been occupied by the US ever since the end of the 1950's Korean War...the fact of the matter is that South Korean leader Moon doesn't need Trump or the US in order to do what he and North Korean leader Kim want to do.  They want to sign a formal peace treaty ending the decades old "armistice" and get on with unifying North and South Korea.

They appear to be doing this by "working around" the US occupation and the bleating's of Donald Trump...whether he's going to a meeting with Kim or not going to a meeting with Kim.  It's really inconsequential.  Please read the following latest update from RT and I will have more comments to follow:

Seoul is in three-way talks with Pyongyang and Washington for an early agreement on formally ending the decades-old Korean War, it said Thursday. The statement came ahead of a summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump in Singapore next week. The 1950-53 conflict ceased with an armistice rather than a peace treaty, and Trump said last week that it would be one of the issues on the table at the historic summit. South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said Thursday it was holding three-way discussions on the issue, AFP reports. “The government will continue close three-way discussions among the South, the North and the US to declare an end to the war as early as possible,” ministry spokesman Noh Kyu-duk said.

As I've said in previous posts, IMO, the entire series of recent developments on the Korean peninsula and vis a vis North Korea's neighbours, Russia and China are due to some behind the scene influence of the grand chess master, Russian President Vladimir Putin.  He sized up the situation, called a delegation of North Korean diplomats to Moscow in September, 2017 and told them that all North Korea needed to do to get the US off its back, to protect itself from a US invasion and to ready/position itself for the coming "New Silk Road" trade route across Asia via pipelines and highways...was to unite with South Korea.  The citizens of both countries had long wanted unification so they could travel back and forth and families could once again live without borders between them.

The crucial piece of the discussion between Putin and the North Koreans that has never been made public is "what kind of security guarantees" would North Korea have to be given before taking an initiative with South Korea?  IMO, the only security guarantees that would be powerful enough to get Kim to do what he's now doing would be security guarantees from Russia/China.  Both these countries have an immediate stake in there being no war...particularly no nuclear war...on the peninsula.

It seems logical to me that Putin has offered complete security assurances to Kim...much as he has offered to Syria's Assad.  In fact, Putin probably pointed to the Syrian situation when negotiating with the North Korean delegation that was sent to Moscow in September, 2017.  Putin probably told Kim that he would covertly send them some S-400's to set up along their coastline.  That would certainly have done the trick.  What people don't factor in is that Putin can send those S-400's wherever he wants. He doesn't need to make a public announcement.  But that's the calibre of security assurances that Kim must have demanded before he went along with Moon in the "unification project".  IMO those S-400's are likely already in place.  It would make sense.

What I'm saying is that Kim must have had some hard and fast security assurances from another party that was at least as powerful a military force as the US.  Ipso facto.  The agreement made between Russia and North Korea [with the support of China] as a result of the September, 2017 meeting has rendered the US irrelevant.  Unless, of course, Trump/USrael wants to take a stand re maintaining the occupation of South Korea and/or the political/military "limbo" that the entire Peninsula has been in for 50+ years.  On the face of it, taking such a stand would be untenable in the eyes of the world.  Of course, taking an untenable/unpopular stand has never stopped the US in the past.

But, perhaps the new military weaponry reality Putin announced in his March 1st speech is the ace card that Putin gave to Kim in September, 2017.... and that Kim is now playing.

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