Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Brinkmanship replaces Caution In Syria

Brinkmanship replaces
Caution In Syria

Breaking News:  USrael has blinked, according to The Duran

According to the last news I read before retiring last night, the US had "blinked" and is now attempting to reconnect the "hot line" that it had so recklessly pulled out of its socket over the weekend.  This latest double cross occurred when, without warning, it shot down a Syrian jet flying over its own sovereign territory.  Here is a report from RT on the latest USrael position:

The US seeks to keep open the communication channels with Russia over Syria but says it retains the right to self defense, according to the White House spokesman. Moscow suspended military cooperation following the US-led coalition’s downing of a Syrian warplane.

“It's important and crucial that we keep lines of communication open to deconflict potential issues,” Sean Spicer told reporters on Monday.

While seeking to keep contacts between the US and Russian military ongoing, the US-led coalition emphasized that it retains the right to “self-defense” amid the news and added tensions, the spokesman added.

Spicer’s statement echoed the comments made earlier on Monday by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, US Marine General Joseph Dunford, who said the US is working to reestablish communications with Russia in Syria, aimed at preventing possible incidents between the two countries’ troops.

“We'll work diplomatically and military in the coming hours to reestablish deconfliction,” Dunford said at a news conference, adding, that the contacts between Russian forces in Syria and a US air operations center in Qatar were still open as of Monday morning.

Moscow announced on Monday afternoon the decision to pause cooperation with its American counterparts in the framework of the Memorandum on the Prevention of Incidents and Ensuring Air Safety in Syria following the coalition’s downing of a Syrian Su-22 warplane on Sunday.

“In the areas of combat missions of Russian air fleet in Syrian skies, any airborne objects, including aircraft and unmanned vehicles of the [US-led] international coalition, located to the west of the Euphrates River, will be tracked by Russian ground and air defense forces as air targets,” the Russian Ministry of Defense stated, condemning the downing of the Su-22 jet as a “cynical” violation of Syria’s sovereignty.

The US military did not use the communication line with Russia during the attack on the Syrian Su-22, despite the fact that Russian warplanes were in the area during the US strike, the ministry underlined.

Earlier, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov branded the attack on the Syrian jet as an act of aggression which in fact helped the terrorists the US says its trying to destroy.

The US-led coalition shot-down the Syrian Su-22 warplane on Sunday, when it was carrying out operations against Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) some 40km from Raqqa, the Russian Defense Ministry said. The US military, however, claimed that the jet “dropped bombs near” US-backed Kurdish SDF militants. The pilot ejected from the plane above IS-controlled territory and is still missing.

The recent developments in Syria, specifically the shooting down the Syrian Su-22 by the US-led coalition, as well as the Iranian missile strike on IS terrorists’ positions, heightens the risk of escalating the Syrian conflict, the UN warned on Monday.

“It does bring up more broadly a deep concern about the risk of possible miscalculation and escalation in the conflict in Syria. We believe that this risk is heightened when efforts to combat [IS] and other listed terrorists groups are not combined with a pursuit of a comprehensive political solution to the Syrian conflict, based on the relevant Security Council resolutions,” Stephane Dujarric, spokesperson for UN Secretary General told reporters at a news briefing.

Trouble is, the US's word is worthless.  Nobody believes anything they say anymore or any commitment they make.  But, what has happened as a result of this latest desperate maneuver by USrael and firm, response by Russia....is that an observation window has been opened into what both nations are doing in Syria and what their short and long term agendas are:

The strategy of Russia has become clear
.  As per usual, Russia is setting up a military "cauldron" in Syria.  In other words, encircling (surrounding) the USrael proxies and their handlers and setting up a "siege".  Most importantly, the strategy of yesterday, where Syrian ally Iran fired on terrorist proxies in eastern Syria (Deyr al Ezzor) from bases in western Iran was, IMO, was a warning of such.  IMO, the Iranian attack on Deyr al Ezzor was more important militarily than the shoot down of the Syrian jet.  Iran signaled that it is going to provide the eastern side of the "cauldron"...Turkey the north (against the Kurds), Shite Arabs from Iraq are going to provide the Southern flank and, most significantly, the Syrian Arab Army of Bashar al Assad is going to continue to march east, reclaiming land.  

It was very significant that Russia warned the US away from flying "West of the Euphrates"...because the strategy is to box them in "East of the Euphrates" and leave them (the terrorists and their handlers) to the Iranians to take care of...from a distance...by way of ballistic missiles fired over the skies of Iraq.  Also, crucially, USrael will be separated from the Syrian oil and gas resources (and future pipeline route) that it covets.

As for what the US's long term agenda in Syria is (or was) The Saker has a good [Russian] summation of the USrael's geostrategic goals behind recent maneuvers in Syria.

GENERALIZATION

After the siege of the Syrian Raqqa (by the US-led coalition) became more active and the top leaders of ISIS were destroyed by Russian Air Force, the capital of the terrorist group was moved again to a new place.

Right now, most of the ISIS field commanders left Raqqa and moved to the city Al-Mayadin in Deir-ez-Zor province. Previously, ISIS leadership from Iraqi Mosul also moved there.

Why this insignificant (considering its size) city is so important? Why after the demise of top leaders did their sidekicks moved there from everywhere? The answer: because of resources (oil, natural gas) and its strategic (for all involved) location.

The thing is, the Americans started their war in Syria not only to control the price and sources of oil and gas, but also to put pressure on Russia (details here). To this end, directing the terrorists to the Central Asia (the Russian underbelly) was one of the key objectives, and the construction of a huge pipeline Persian Gulf – EU was supposed to be its final economic achievement. Next, that was supposed to be followed by explosions all over Russia (with concomitant fall of the economy and standards of living), organization of “opposition rebellions”, Western “support of the press”, “sweet promises”, and “democratic” replacement of Putin and “elites” by those subservient to the US.

The next few years showed that the American strategy was too ambitious, but despite the Russian victories, its implementation in Syria not been completely stopped. Thus, while the war is approaching its logical end, the US desperately needs to take possession of the largest possible and most convenient parts of pro-American Syrian territory, and via those, without deposing Assad, build those coveted oil and gas pipelines.

The first attempt to get this territory was made just a few weeks ago. Thanks to the able actions of the Russian Ministry of Defense it failed miserably (details here). The second attempt is being made right now and it is directly connected with little known Syrian township Al-Mayadin.


And, finally,  The "War Nerd" is back.  I followed "The War Nerd" starting back in the early days of the Iraq War.  Gary Brecher is an American who blogs from Russia.  He has a very deep understanding of the history of both the US and Russia and writes with a sardonic wit that keeps me coming back for more. Here is a recent "tweet" from him.  Almost, but not quite, worth opening a "Twitter" Account for....

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